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India Falling
Categories: India

Falling Growth

Today Stephen Roach, non -executive chairman at Morgan Stanley, warned that India might add a new chapter to the world in rescission. This was some thing that was not quite in my mind. Come to think – in our part of the world – we are the world. If we fail as an economy, there is no one from Pacific to Indian Ocean who will be safe.

A potential Indian economic failure will also be the failure of Liberty and democracy as we know it. Suddenly the authoritarian and controlled systems of China will be the model for world to succeed. I don’t have anything in person against this – but i do write this blog because i think free. Freedom to choose who you are and what you become (for that matter what becomes of you) is what being a human is all about.

Its also a theological/religious question. I am a Hindu and I believe in all gods of all the civilizations that world can possibly put across to me (for the record i believe in 340 Million of them – i am sure the ones that you believe is a subset or i can add without a significant change to the number). Which means even my believes are inherently tolerant an multifaceted (unlike the present chinese make believe of putting only nation first).

If Indian economy fails its not just the failure of its Industry captains but also of world’s (likely) oldest civilization – and its right to survive in the world of tomorrow. Further the implications themselves are catastrophic.

We need to act and act urgently.

First where are we going wrong?

We are going wrong with our growth patterns. While our growth have been in principle an urban phenomenon – no serious effort to make our growth -’inclusive’ has been made.

While India’s growth over the last couple of decades has been only marginally lower than China’s, the number of people lifted from poverty in India pales into comparison with its Asian neighbor: 70 million for India; 400 million for China. Prof. Sen pointed out in his book, “Development as Freedom,” that the fruits and opportunities of freedom – including freedom to work – can only be had if people have the most basic skills of literacy and numeracy; something hundreds of millions of Indians lack.

Though it is generally held that while primary education in India stinks, higher education is brilliant, this is not entirely true. The top elitist institutions are second to none, for sure, but many – in fact the majority – who graduate from mainstream institutions of “higher learning” are considered unemployable.

Growth has allowed the rich to acquire more private gains, but has hampered the poor by neglecting social public goods, including the very basics of health, nutrition, education and shelter.

So the idea is simple – invest in Schooling. Primary school needs to made and maintained through NREGA funds and be connected back to right to education.

Use the funds further to educate the sections which need ‘social empowerment’ and delete the reservation when this generation graduates.

Have a plan to setup massive ‘professional training institutes’ as the primary school audience educates to secondary and further. Not just 5 year plan – have a plan for 15 years.

Second – Drive the growth from cities

Being rich is NOT BAD. If cities are growing – encourage their growth. You need the revenues from cities to cevelop rest of India. A non inclusive grwth itself is not bad – make that a trailer for the inclusive growth movie that will follow.

Third – Invest in Citizens Happiness

Happiness to average citizens comes from stability and security. Today Indians have been forced to work in trade centers of Mumbai and Delhi for lack of opportunities else where.

If  just the transport infrastructure were to improve, the workers of these cities may easily NOT leave their homes in 250 KM radius. Tokyo can be cited as an example.

Bottomline – Make large cities larger. Begin in investing happiness by lessening internally displaced people. If they remain in their hometowns – communities and culture can pass their happiness further down.

 

Or just do anything but fail…. please don’t


 

 

 

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